FARC members in Colombia could now opt for an early exit and join groups such as the ELN, right-wing or criminal groups, as a possible renegotiation of the peace agreement is likely to have a less beneficial outcome for them. These other violent non-state groups can exploit the general insecurity in the country. Insecurity can easily turn into frustration and anger, which can lead to new grievances and violence. The context in which peace must be achieved is anything but hospitable. The government itself will fight with international assistance to fund all planned activities. The new institutions required by the agreement – some already created – are skeletal, severely understaffed and unable to implement the programmes for which they are designed, such as the Agency for Territorial Renewal; other official bodies, including the Attorney General`s Office, have proposed policies that contradict those of the agreement. [fn] Telephone interview with crisis group, senior diplomat, Bogotá, 28 November 2016; Interview, government representative, 9 December 2016.Hide footnote Violence against local social leaders has increased, raising doubts about the benefits of peace and leading to increased polarization between supporters and opponents. The peace process with the National Liberation Army (ELN), Colombia`s second largest insurgency, is still ongoing. Defending the agreement will be an essential part of the political struggle to come. Convincing a suspicious and urbanized public to provide support depends in the short term on what happens in and around the FARC cantons. Over the next year, successful implementation will be the best way to build popular and political support and make it politically costly for opponents to reverse the peace process. Transparency in the surrender of weapons, a full apology for past crimes, further progress on humanitarian measures such as mine clearance, increased results in the search for victims of enforced disappearances and possible cooperation with the Special Jurisdiction for Peace would underline the insurgents` commitment to peace and the dangers of refusing the agreement. Although most voters supported peace with the rebels, many who noted the FARC`s long history of kidnappings and killings felt the deal offered too much leniency, including reduced sentences in exchange for confessions.

But Santos also faced the challenge of renegotiating new terms with the rebels, who had been promised a new life as civilians and a white vest. Research for this approach included in-depth interviews with members of the opposition, FARC and government negotiating teams, members of the Tripartite Ceasefire Monitoring and Review Mechanism, leaders and politicians of pro-peace agreements, political and legal experts, and members of the international community close to the peace talks. Despite the desire for peace, many felt that the agreement reached in Havana, Cuba, was too lenient towards the FARC. Under the proposed agreement, its members who confessed to their crimes would be entitled to reduced sentences. Norte de Santander has seen disinformation campaigns by locally influential right-wing groups that emerged after the official demobilization of the paramilitary umbrella organization AUC. As a result of these campaigns, some people believed that a successful peace agreement would mean handing the country over to the FARC. Given the economic and political crisis in neighboring Venezuela, people were also told that the peace agreement would make Arauca and Norte de Santander, the border regions most closely linked to the neighbor, vulnerable to an overflow of these turbulences. Coalition building will be crucial for the next president and Congress. [fn] Alliances are a constant in presidential elections, as parties reach agreements after the first round to support one of the two remaining candidates. In 2018, there will probably already be many coalitions due to common positions on the peace agreement. After the referendum, the power of the various actors within these coalitions is difficult to judge and not static.

The many possible presidential candidates within the “no” movement, including Marta Lucía Ramírez, Óscar Iván Zuluaga, Iván Duque, Carlos Holmes Trujillo and Alejandro Ordóñez, as well as Vargas Lleras, will make competition within and between parties tougher than usual. In general, the Democratic Centre Party (DCP) starts with an advantage, as its voting threshold is high and Uribe, although excluded from a new term, enjoys a certain cult of personality. [fn]”La estrategia del Sí tuvo muchos desaciertos`: Francisco Gutiérrez”, Semana, 8 October 2016; Interview with a crisis group, political scientist, 10 November 2016.Hide the footnote It is difficult to imagine a realistic scenario in which the DCP candidate would not reach the second round. While other opposition candidates try to increase their share of the vote, they tend to present themselves more radically as the saviors of democracy and security. [fn] Alejandro Ordóñez accused Santos of consolidating a “dictatorship” because of the way the peace agreement was handled. .